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It was reported on March 25 that the current global core shortage problem has not been effectively alleviated. With the expansion of production by major semiconductor manufacturers, the supply of semiconductor silicon wafers is also very clear. With the recent situation of various semiconductor wafer factories signing long-term contracts with customers, the industry believes that prices will increase quarterly and yearly to 2025. Moreover, the cumulative increase in this year and next two years will reach 20-25%. In 2024, the average contract price of 12-inch semiconductor silicon wafers will reach the US$200 mark in one fell swoop, setting a new high. The price increase and business growth cycle time have set new records.

In order to solve the shortage of semiconductor production capacity, since 2020, major semiconductor manufacturers including Intel, TSMC, Samsung, etc. have actively built new fabs to expand their production capacity. Capital expenditure has reached a new high for three consecutive years, and new production capacity will be opened in the second half of this year. out. However, the last business cycle high point of the semiconductor silicon wafer market appeared in the second half of 2019, and it will not come out of the cycle bottom until the second half of 2021 and enter the growth cycle again. At the same time, since the semiconductor wafer fab basically did not expand the new factory in the past three years, it has only expanded its production since the second half of last year. However, it will take a long time to open the expanded production capacity, and the existing production capacity still cannot meet the overall semiconductor factory. Demand is the key reason for the shortage of semiconductor wafers.

The world's top three semiconductor silicon wafer manufacturers, including Japan's SUMCO, Japan's Shin-Etsu, and Taiwan's Global Wafer, have signed long-term contracts with customers since the second half of last year. The production capacity has been sold out, and the production capacity of Shengco has been booked by customers before 2026. Although the three major semiconductor wafer factories have already collected advance payments from customers and launched a large-scale expansion plan, the new semiconductor wafer factory (greenfield) will not be able to mass-produce until 2024 at the earliest. All will be in short supply and the price will increase in stages year by year.

The year-end analysis report of the silicon wafer industry released by the Silicon Product Manufacturers Group (SMG) of the International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI) recently pointed out that, benefiting from the growing wide-ranging demand for semiconductor equipment and various applications, semiconductor wafer shipments in 2021 The total volume increased by 14% year-on-year to 14,165 million square inches (MSI), and the market size increased by 13% year-on-year to US$12.6 billion, simultaneously hitting a new record.

Semiconductor silicon wafers are in short supply and become a seller's market. Judging from the long-term contracts signed by various semiconductor wafer factories and customers, the price will increase quarterly and yearly to 2025. The industry pointed out that the average price of semiconductor silicon wafers increased by more than 10% this year, and the increase in next year and the next year will only be reduced slightly, which means that the cumulative price increase this year and next year can reach 20-25%, and the price will continue to increase by 5-10% in the following year. In 2024, the average price of 12-inch semiconductor silicon wafers is expected to reach the $200 mark.